USA finansijsko trziste i refleksije na Evropu, Srbiju...

@ivan2211

sjajan grafik, sjajan komentar. bice zaista interesantno videti sta ce se desiti u narednih 15 do 30 dana. i kako ce belex na to odreagovati. jos jednom super post! hvala

Bravo Ivane! Odlican grafik koji ce nam mnogo koristiti u buducnosti!

Posle saopstenja FED-a, Wall Street u zestokom rally-ju.

ja kako prtim ameriku adrenalin mi radi samo tako! u jednom momentu se linija okrenula na dole reko evo minusa! ti ameru su stvarno maheri!

ING Sees DAX Index at ‘Critical Juncture’: Technical Analysis
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

By Adam Ewing

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s benchmark DAX Index may fall as much as 5.4 percent if it slides past yesterday’s intraday low of 5,312.64, continuing the weakness that started in October, according to a technical analyst at ING Groep NV.

“It is at a critical juncture now,” said Amsterdam-based Roelof-Jan Van Den Akker. A drop below yesterday’s intraday low would increase “the chance of a double top formation. Then we should expect a decline into the 200-day moving average line and support line at around 5,135.”

A “double top” trading pattern occurs when share prices indicate two distinct peaks on a chart. The pattern is completed when prices decline below the lowest point of the first peak, signaling the end of an uptrend.

This decline could lower the 50-day moving average line to between 5,400 and 5,450, a lower top from which the index could slip to the July lows of around 4,500, 17 percent below the current level, Van Den Akker said.

The DAX has fallen 7.2 percent from its 5,854.14 October high amid speculation a near eight-month rally has outpaced economic growth prospects.

Van Den Akker said momentum is weakening rapidly as the index has already shown a series of lower highs during the past few months, suggesting lower prices are ahead.

“It would be a declining process if we test this 5,135 support level, which is possible.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Ewing in Stockholm at aewing5@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 4, 2009 10:13 EST

Dax je bio probio martovski support (ona žuta linija koja se vuče od martovskog dna) za razliku od dow koji je sve vreme iznad. Trebala je da usledi potvrda, ali se danas vratio nazad iznad linije... (probijanje je bilo minimalno, ali da se nastavilo) Jeste bio double top, ali ga nije bilo na drugim berzama.

E sad ne bih da mračim...ali ovo ne može ovako još dugo. Ne bih da davim sa milion pokazatelja, ali ugao rasta je suviše veliki, a privredna kretanja svakako ne daju osnova za ovoliki rast. Berza je suviše odskočila i otišla previše gore, po meni, malo predaleko. Opet, nisam ni od onih koji govore da će pasti još od letos i za to vreme propuštaju popriličnu dobit. Korekcija svakako sledi, pitanje je kada i bojim se da ne bude jako ozbiljna (što je stručniji i iskusniji čovek sa kojim sam pričao o ovome - veruje da će korekcija biti gora...).

Zato ako ste u akcijama, pažljivo...obazrivo...oprezno, osluškujte svaki pomak na svetskim tržištima i budite spremni za selloff i izlazak u keš ili ako trgujete preko za short...

Da se lepo vidi o čemu se radi!

Prepolovio se plus kod Amera... Videćemo gde će završiti!
I jako sam srećan što još nekoga interesuje TA! Očekujem da ću imati koristi od čitanja tuđih analiza! :)

znaci ovi ameri nisu uredu :x

Šta kažeš na finalni rezultat Ris?

“It is at a critical juncture now,” said Amsterdam-based Roelof-Jan Van Den Akker.


eh sad.. pa taj isti je u gostovanju na cnbc-u 3.nov napravio korelaciju sa dolarom koji se odbio od 50day MVA na 1.4650(cime se nastavlja opadajući trend za dolar-znaci nema averzije prema riziku) i time nagovestio kako DAX a time i ostale berze treba da rastu, evo linka pa gledajte.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1317520857&play=1

Hahahahaha!
Da, svi oni uglavnom pričaju dve priče. Valjda je glavna stvar da umeš da se ogradiš i da ispada da si uvek u pravu! :)

Evo i "objašnjenja"...

U.S. Stocks Erase Gain as House Votes to Limit Card Rates
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

By Sapna Maheshwari

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks erased most of a 156-point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after a House bill to curb credit-card rates spurred concern about bank earnings, outweighing the Federal Reserve’s plan to keep interest rates at a record low.

Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. led financial shares to the steepest loss among 10 industries as the vote moved up the start date of many rule changes that will make it more difficult for banks to boost credit-card rates. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index wiped out most of 1.5 percent rally triggered when the Fed said it will leave interest rates at “exceptionally low” levels for an extended period.

“If you’re going to limit how much banks could charge in their credit cards, that’s going to limit profits,” said Art Hogan, the New York-based chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. “So it’s certainly another source of pressure.”

The S&P 500 added 0.1 percent to 1,046.5 at 4:19 p.m. in New York. The Dow increased 30.23 points, or 0.3 percent, to 9,802.14. About five stocks fell for every four that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Fed, at the end of a two-day policy meeting, restated its intention to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an extended period and said the U.S. economy is picking up.

“Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement today after meeting in Washington. “Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months.”

ISM Shows Order Growth

The S&P 500 rallied in morning trading after Institute for Supply Management’s report on non-manufacturing businesses showed 1.4 percent growth in new orders and a 2 percent increase in the backlog of orders. The main index in the report fell to 50.6, below analysts’ estimates while still signaling growth.

Some traders may have sold shares in anticipation of the Nov. 6 report on the U.S. job market. The unemployment rate increased to 9.9 percent in October, according to the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

“It’s such a big number, people would rather wait on stocks,” said Walter Todd, who manages $750 million as co-chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital Associates LLC in Greenwood, South Carolina. “There’s a lot of people taking a wait-and-see approach to Friday’s number.”

The S&P 500 Financials Index slumped 1.5 percent, the most among 10 industries, after analyst Meredith Whitney said the biggest U.S. banks may face declining values on home-loan bonds with government backing as the Fed prepares to end its $1.25 trillion purchase program.

Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. increased holdings of so-called agency mortgage-backed securities by 44 percent from the third quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009, Whitney said in a note yesterday to investors. Those increases came as the Fed began buying securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae in an attempt to keep mortgage rates low and spur housing demand, she wrote.

To contact the reporters on this story: Sapna Maheshwari in New York at smaheshwar11@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 4, 2009 16:24 EST

ali zanimljivo je da dolar skoro nimalo nije ojacao do kraja iako su akcije padale sa maksimuma.. mozda ipak moze jos malo

Ako ovi indijanci ponovo zeznu stvar kao sinoc, gadjace ih Atomski atomskom bombom!! :D

cuti atomski kadgod se radujem ranije, odu u minus!
Bolje ovako "sta je ovo idite u minus!! hocemo minus!!"

Amerikanci opet blizu 10000 !!! Sve sam sigurniji da kod nas pocinje da vazi ona " svi sumom a mi drumom " !!! :x

Kakav zestok rally na Wall Street-u! :)

He, he, tako je to kad Atomski pripreti. :D :bounce: :bounce:

Sutra ujutru da si se nacrtao u 9.30 i žestoko pripretio Trulex-u ;)

Kad je Templeton usao u AIKB, samo mozemo da se zavalimo, i posmatramo long-term show.

Ivan2211 ::

Sutra ujutru da si se nacrtao u 9.30 i žestoko pripretio Trulex-u ;)

Ovi nasi se ne plase bombardovanja, osetili, culi, videli. Za nase treba posebna taktika. :D

The Feds Have No Faith in Recovery
by Michael Pento

The stock market has enjoyed a significant rally since the end of the first quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that the economy grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter--a figure they achieved by that claiming inflation was running at only a 0.8% annual rate, despite a sharp drop in the dollar, a spike in commodity prices and record highs for gold.

The cyclical bull market in stocks and positive print on GDP has caused some on Wall Street and in Washington to claim the recession has ended. Despite all the good economic news, an end to fiscal and monetary stimulus is nowhere in sight, precisely because policymakers know the happy news is artificially derived.

A closer look indicates that neither the administration nor the Federal Reserve believes its own recovery rhetoric. They understand that the economy will not prosper without continued life support.

I believe removing such artificial stimulus is needed so the country can immediately begin de-leveraging and to prevent the accumulation of yet more baneful debt. What is truly amazing is how many people on Wall Street are foolish enough to postulate that our problems have been solved. The stock market will not be so easily fooled for much longer.

The Great Depression Part II was narrowly averted last year by slashing interest rates to near zero. The Fed made money virtually free because the record level of indebtedness ($34 trillion) in the economy required such low rates so that borrowers could service their obligations. Otherwise a cataclysmic domino effect of defaults and bankruptcies would have occurred. To avoid that scenario, the public sector assumed some of the private sector's debt and then subsequently took on a significant amount more. The debt of the nation continues to increase at a 4.9% annual rate. All public debt is ultimately the responsibility of the private sector to pay off--either directly or through future taxes. As a result, the economy has never been more precarious than it is today.

In spite of this, the stock market appears to be doing quite well. We've seen a 57% rally off the March lows in the S&P 500. However, if you measure the market against other assets its performance is much less impressive. Since the beginning of 2000 the S&P is down about 50% measured in terms of a basket of currencies other than the falling U.S. dollar. The index is down nearly 80% against the real inflation hedge--gold!

The sad truth is that this recent market rally has been produced on the back of a weakening dollar and the slashing of corporate overhead. Cutting payrolls and research and product development projects are not a prescription for sustainable growth. As I like to say, you can't burn your furniture to keep your house warm forever. Eventually, top-line revenue growth must emerge or Wall Street's game of beat-the-expectations will be short lived.

It's also worth noting that a country cannot devalue itself to prosperity and that a bull market cannot survive an inflationary environment for long. In the short run, nominal gains in the averages can occur since everything priced in dollars tends to increase in value. However, the rally will be truncated unless the Fed provides consumers and corporations with a stable currency.

The ramifications of a crumbling currency are vastly misunderstood. A strong dollar is the cornerstone of a healthy economy. It is essential for balanced growth and healthy investment to occur. On the other hand a weak currency decimates the middle class and the corporate sector's ability to maintain earnings growth. Inflation lies behind all infirm currencies, and it is inflation that destroys the purchasing power of consumers. The diminished value of their wallets leaves them with the ability to buy only non-discretionary items. As a direct result, unemployment rates soar and economic output plunges.

I believe we will suffer from a protracted period of stagflation. Money supply, as measured by M2, has increased 5% Y.O.Y. Meanwhile the output of goods and services is falling. As long as the money supply is chasing a shrinking GDP pie, there will be upward pressure on prices.

Making the situation even worse is the manner in which the money supply is growing. The quality of growth is very low because the increase in supply is coming from commercial bank purchases of Treasury debt, rather from an issuance of credit to the private sector for capital goods creation. Total Loans and Leases at Commercial banks are down 8.2% from last year. Meanwhile, the amount of Treasuries held at all commercial banks is up 20% year-on-year.

That means money supply growth is emanating from government's misallocation and redirection of capital. It isn't being loaned out to build mines and factories; it is instead being loaned out to increase consumption and build even more consumer debt.

If the Treasury and Federal Reserve truly believed the economy and the stock market were on a sustainable recovery path, talk of extending and increasing the home buyer's tax credit would be off the table. The Fed would already be reducing the size of the monetary base. The truth, however, is that no one in government really believes in this recovery. If they did, they would be hiking interest rates and the deficit would be shrinking.

The government's realization of our precarious economic condition means its largess will continue. Near term, that may ease some pain. So did the artificial stimulus that gave rise to the housing boom. In the end, a protracted period of a near-zero interest rates, along with endless economic stimulus, will spawn another bubble and not a genuine recovery.

Be sure to listen in on my Mid-Week Reality Check and to follow my blog Pentonomics
Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/michaelpento

NEW YORK - Američki indeksi snažno su porasli na krilima rasta produktivnosti i manje zahtjeva za naknade za nezaposlene.

Dow
Jones skočio je 1,65 posto, na 9,963,49 bodova, S&P 500 porastao je
1,46 posto, na 1,061,79 bodova dok je najveći dobitnik bio Nasdaq
skokom od 2,2 posto, na 2,101,04 bodova.
Dionice Cisca skočile su 2,7 posto nakon što je kompanije objavila
dobit veću od očekivanja. U to, kompanije će za buyback dionica
izdvojiti 10 milijardi dolara i potvrdila je da se poslovanje
oporavlja. Research in Motion porastao je 2,2 posto nakon što je
objavljena namjera buybacka 21 milijuna dionica. Tehnološke dionice
bile su najveći dobitnici pa je Arca Network Index porastao 1,9 posto
dok je indeks poluvodiča uzletio 2,4 posto.
Najveći dobitnik tržišta bio je IMS Health koji je uzletio 23,4
posto nakon što je pristala na preuzimanje od strane TPG-a i CPP
Investmenta. Posao je vrijedan 5,2 milijarde dolara. Općenito, u Dow
Jonesu bio je tek jedan jedini gubitnik, na svakih šest dobitnika
dolazio je tek po jedan gubitnik. Dynegy skočio je 12 posto, na 2,09
dolara i time bio drugi najveći dobitnik u S&P 500 indeksu.
Dobri podaci o maloprodaji podigli su dionice trgovina. Tako su
Jo-Ann Stores uzletjele čak 12 posto dok je Gap porastao 3,7 posto, na
22,90 dolara. Dobra je vijest i što je indes straha VIX oslabio četvrti
dan uzastopno.

DOBRE VIJESTI


Američka maloprodaja porasla dvostruko više od očekivanja


Autor/izvor: SEEbiz
NEW
YORK - Produktivnost u SAD-u rasla je u trećem tromjesečju po godišnjoj
stopi od 9,5 posto, najviše u zadnjih šest godina, objavilo je danas
ministarstvo rada u Washingtonu.

U
drugom tromjesečju od travnja do lipnja produktivnost je rasla stopom
od 6,9 posto, a novi skok pripisuje se naporima tvrtaka da povećaju
proizvodnju s manje radne snage, što smanjuje troškove. Ministarstvo
rada istodobno je izvijestilo da je broj novih zahtjeva za isplatu
naknada za nezaposlene prošli tjedan smanjen za 20.000, na 512.000, što
je najmanje u zadnjih 10 mjeseci.

Po podatcima Međunarodnog vijeća trgovačkih centara i Goldman Sachsa, u
listopadu je povećan promet u maloprodaji za 2,1 posto, što su najbolji
rezultati od srpnja 2008. i dvostruko viši od prognoza.

"Poboljšani makroekonomski uvjeti navode potrošače da više kupuju. To
je dobar predznak za Božić", izjavio je Ken Perkins, predsjednik tvrtke
za istraživanje maloprodaje Retail Metrics za The Wall Street Journal.

Nebojsa, bajat ti je izvestaj :) - Dow Jones se zatvorio na koti 10008. :)

SUPER JOS BOLJE

DOW JONES zavrsijo juce 1005,96%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story//unemployment-rate-hits-102-in-october-2009-11-06-83100

10,2%. Ovo je zestoko i krajnje neprijatno iznenadjenje. Sada sledi poniranje svetskih indeksa. Sto kaze moj prijatelj, nek se j... vise sa tim +200, -200, +200, -200.

Evropa pada! da li je to zbog manje zaposlenih nego sto je ocekivano? U tri P ... M...

Bas tako, Rise. I ovo je tek pocetak, danas ce indeksi ponirati, ocekujem relativno velike gubitke i naredne nedelje. Izvestaj sa trzista rada je za njih najvazniji.

U evropi ili i amerika? pa koji su K. juce skakali?

Skakali su zato sto su izvestaji bili dobri, i zato sto su ocekivali maksimalno 9,9% nezaposlenosti u oktobru. Ovaj izvestaj danas je bio ugaoni kamen temeljac za sve - on je sklonjen, i berze se ruse. Pad ce biti svuda, Amerika, Evropa, Azija, Belex...

Iskreno, smucili su mi se vise sa tim skokovima i padovima. Treba to izdrzati.

Treba da im Dinkica posaljemo da podigne zaposlenost-no :roll: :pirat:

Idioti, jos ce u plusu zavrsiti. Investitori su, cini se, prosto otresli jobs report, i nastavili da kupuju akcije.