USA finansijsko trziste i refleksije na Evropu, Srbiju...

ako posle ovakvog dana u svetu ne skocimo.. uzas

Stefane, hajde baci ovde graf BELEX 15 sa oscilatorima i ostalim sranjcima!

edit. al tutni i RSI, na FTSE 100 je bio dobar pokazatelj

bojim se da će sutra srbi opet protiv celog sveta

Evropa na kraju trgovanja
FTSE 100
5382.67up
86.29 1.63%
Dax
5804.82up
117.99 2.07%
Cac 40
3863.16up
57.15 1.50%

Non-ProfitOrganization ::

BELEX 15 sa oscilatorima i ostalim sranjcima!

Sto se mene tice moze jos nekoliko nedelja ovako. Taman da se realocira portfelj pred nov rally.

Hehehehehe...
Evo ga!

Dow
10,407 136 +1.33%
Nasdaq
2,198 30 +1.38%
S&P 500
1,109 16 +1.45%
GlobalDow
1,981 +31 +1.57%
Gold
1,139 +23 +2.03%
Oil
78.88 2.55 3.34%

Stocks are overvalued and the US economy is likely to fall back into a recession next year, well-known analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

cnbc.com
Meredith Whitney

"I haven't been this bearish in a year," she said in a live interview. "I look at the board and every single stock from Tiffany [TIF 42.99 0.75 (+1.78%) ] to Bank of America [BAC 15.86 -0.12 (-0.75%) ] to Caterpillar [CAT 60.44 1.66 (+2.82%) ] is up. But there is no fundamental rooting as to why these names are up—particularly in the consumer space."

In a wide-ranging interview, Whitney, CEO of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, also said:

* She was disappointed that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn't spell out how the Federal Reserve planned to exit "the biggest Fed program to date, which is the mortgage-backed purchase program." In a speech earlier Thursday, Bernanke said the central bank was watching the dollar's decline but is likely to keep interest rates low.

* The US consumer was going through the biggest credit contraction ever—even bigger than that during the Great Depression. "That credit contraction is accelerating," she said. "There's nowhere to hide at this point."



* The banking sector is not adequately capitalized and will need to raise more capital in the coming year.

* The residential real estate market is likely to worsen and remains a much bigger threat than the commercial property market. The government's mortgage modification program won't result in any major improvement in homeowners' ability to stay above water, she added.

"I don't know what's going on in the market right now because it makes no sense to me," she said.

"The scariest thing about the Fed's program is that the money on the sidelines isn't going to support that asset class," she added. "So the trillion dollars of Fannie (Mae), Freddie (Mac) and mortgage-backed securities that the Fed is holding—there's no substitute buyer there."

Pa, da ne bude da sada ja ispumpavam...
Čini mi se da je vrlo lepo probijen otpor na SP500 i kada bih morao da se odlučim, rekao bih da nas čekaju sada oni čuveni uzastopni dani rasta. (naravno govorim samo o SP500)

[quote="StefanMR"]Hehehehehe...
Evo ga!

Stefane, postajes lider chartista u Srbiji, jos ako tako budes citao i EKG ... :cheers:

U svakom slucaju hvala, meni je bilo korisno videti ove grafikone. Hvala na trudu.

Moram priznati da je EKG lakše čitati nego grafike, tj. EKG mnogo manje ostavlja mašti i zaključci su uglavnom precizni i pouzdani.
Nadam se da ću sve svoje promašaje imati na CHARTovima, a ne na EKGovima! :)

sve mi se više čini da si ti Stefane promašio fakultet, ali još si mlad i imaš vremena da ispraviš eventualnu grešku

Zašto ne dva fakulteta? :D

Ameri nastavljaju sa uptrendom, zavrsili su iznad vrha postignutog juce sto daje dalju potvrdu rasta i probijanje novih ovogodisnjih vrhova. Prodajem sve na Belexu i selim se tamo gde ima nekakve logike .:evil:

prevarant ::

sve mi se više čini da si ti Stefane promašio fakultet, ali još si mlad i imaš vremena da ispraviš eventualnu grešku

Malo je glupo da sad odustajem od ovog, kad sam na kraju! Ali verovatno ću potražiti neku specijalizaciju iz tehničke analize i portfolio menadžmenta! :)

Što se tiče amera, i meni se čini da kod njih stvari imaju malo više logike nego kod nas. Ali zato kod nas ako dobro ubodeš možeš da zaradiš 30-40% za 2 nedelje! Ima Belex svojih čari! :)

Mobius Expects 40% BRIC Stocks Gain, Says Buy on Dips (Update3)
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By Seda Sezer

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Mark Mobius said stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China are likely to rise by 30 to 40 percent within three to four years as higher economic growth and lower government debt spurs corporate earnings.

Mobius, chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said he’s increasing holdings in all emerging markets, with particular focus on the four biggest developing-nation economies collectively known as the BRICs.

“BRIC countries are really at the top” of our favorite holdings, Mobius said in an interview at the sidelines of a press conference in Istanbul today. “You can see BRIC countries have been best performing.”

Russia’s RTS Index has surged 135 percent this year, the biggest gainer among 89 equity gauges worldwide, and Brazil, China and India rallied more than 75 percent as the global economic recovery spurred demand for commodity exports. While developed countries may shrink 4 percent this year, emerging markets as a whole may avoid a contraction with zero change in gross domestic product, Mobius said.

While a “sudden violent correction” is likely in a bull market, investors should be “ready to buy,” Mobius told reporters.

The biggest growth areas in emerging markets are in the consumer and commodity industries, with China and Brazil offering among the cheapest stocks worldwide, Mobius said.

Valuations

Developing-nation equities have more than doubled from their low point in March and gained three times more this year than the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. stocks, climbing 74 percent.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of 22 developing countries added 0.4 percent to 984.26 as of 4:10 p.m. in London, poised for the highest closing level since Aug. 11, 2008. The index is valued at 20 times reported earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The MSCI China Index trades at 17.7 times profit, while the MSCI Brazil Index is valued at 18.5 times earnings. That compares with a price-earnings multiple of about 30 for the MSCI All Country gauge of developed and emerging economies. The S&P 500 is valued at 22 times profit of the companies in the index.

Templeton has about $2 billion invested in the four so- called BRIC economies, Mobius said.

Mobius was attending at a conference in Istanbul where Templeton and Akbank TAS, the Turkish bank part-owned by Citigroup Inc., said today they are offering a fund covering BRIC nations to Turkish investors.

Turkish Stocks

Turkish assets aren’t “extremely expensive,” Mobius said. Templeton has $800 million invested in Turkey, mostly in banks, petroleum and consumer stocks, Mobius told reporters. “We are constantly looking” for new stock offerings in Turkey, he said.

The country’s ISE National 100 Index fell 1.7 percent to 46,419.87, valuing the gauge at 14.6 times reported profit.

Mobius said he’s buying bank stocks in Thailand and technology companies in Taiwan. Among so-called frontier markets, countries including Vietnam, Kenya and Nigeria are “very interesting now,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Seda Sezer in Istanbul at ssezer2@bloomberg.net

Ameri u opasnom minusu, za sada....

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of Japan upgraded its view of the nation's economic outlook Friday, while it unanimously left its overnight call-rate target at 0.1% as widely expected.

The central bank said financial conditions continue to show signs of improvement, exports and productions continue to increase, and the decline in corporate capital outlays appears to be ending.

"Japan's economy is picking up mainly due to various policy measures taken at home and abroad, although the momentum of self-sustaining recovery in domestic private demand remains weak," the bank said in a statement issued after its two-day policy meeting.

Although economic downside risks have diminished somewhat, the bank said it will maintain its accommodative policies and provide steady support to help the economy recovery.

The central bank said its baseline scenario "projects that the pace of improvement of the economy is likely to remain moderate" until around the middle of the fiscal year ending in March 2011. Most analysts expect the BOJ to maintain its extremely accommodative policy at least through the end of 2010.

Japanese government officials have recently stepped up calls for the central bank to do more to support the recovery, after the BOJ actually took steps toward normalizing policy at its last meeting.

The BOJ last month said it will allow its temporary program to purchase corporate bonds and commercial paper expire at the end of December, as scheduled. It extended a low-interest loan program for banks by three months through the end of March, but said that program, too, would then be allowed to expire. See full story on Oct. 30 Bank of Japan decision.

Government data released Monday showed the nation's economy grew more than expected in the July-September quarter, benefiting from the effects of government stimulus.

In real terms -- adjusted for price changes -- gross domestic product rose 1.2% in the quarter from the April-June period, or 4.8% on an annualized basis. Economists had expected a 0.6% on-quarter increase and an annualized increase of 2.2% in the latest period.

ne znam, možda grešim ali nešto sam razmišljao

čini mi se da zadnjih 15-20 dana imamo pojavu koja mi se čini kao stvarni pokazatelj izlaska iz krize.
naime radi se o tome da sve više dolazi do desinhronizovanog kretanja svetskih berzi. tako da sad imamo da recimo ameri idu u plus, evropa je na oko nule, a recimo azija bude u minusu. šta više i u tim regionima se nacionalne berze kreću u poprilično velikim rasponima. mi smo to najbolje osetili na našoj berzi koja više nema nikakve logike sa ostalima. po meni razlog tome je što svet stvarno izlazi iz krize i sve se manje gleda u stanje u USA, a veća važnost se pridaje domaćim ekonomskim pokazateljima koji su naravno različiti u svakoj zemlji ponaosob.

Ma, prevarante, bilo bi dobro da je tako, ali nazalost nije: uticaj Wall Street-a je jos uvek veliki. Na primer, u postu iznad, rekao sam da je Centralna banka Japana (Bank of Japan) dala prilicno optimisticnu prognozu za oporavak ekonomije. NIKKEI, glavni indeks berze u Tokiju, je pao. Zasto? Pa zbog jucerasnjih gubitaka na Wall Street-u. Kod nas je stvar mnogo gora, jer mi em nemamo sta realno da ponudimo stranim investitorima (nas BDP je iskljucivo rastao zbog stranih investicija i kredita, a ne iz realnih izvora, zbog proizvodnje i industrije), em na berzi valcer smrti igraju tajkuni, koji su se jeftino domogli prvoklasnih akcija. Cak je i EK u izvestaju konstatovala zalosno stanje BG berze. Dok se tajkuni ne istovare, a Vlada Srbije u potpunosti ne implementira predloge EK (a to je dobro, EK je promene legislature na berzi vezala za set zakona koje Srbija mora ispuniti da bi postala clan EU), velikih promena na berzi (boljih promena) nece biti.

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline as Dell Retreats on Earnings
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By Julie Cruz

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures declined, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may erase its weekly advance, as lower-than-estimated earnings at Dell Inc. overshadowed a gain in metal prices.

Dell, the third-largest maker of personal computers, slumped 6.4 percent in Germany as its sales and profit missed analysts’ projections. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the biggest publicly traded copper producer, rose as the metal headed for a weekly gain.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring next month dropped 0.2 percent to 1,092 as of 10:36 a.m. in London, after adding as much as 0.1 percent earlier. The index is up 0.1 percent this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 0.2 percent to 10,305. Nasdaq-100 Index futures fell 0.1 percent to 1,768.75.

The S&P 500 has jumped 62 percent from a 12-year low in March as a four-quarter contraction in the world’s largest economy ended. The eight-month rally has pushed valuations to about 22 times its companies’ reported earnings, the highest level since 2002, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show. U.S. stocks extended a global drop yesterday as concern grew that the rally has outpaced the prospects for economic growth and Bank of America Corp. downgraded chipmakers.

“There is a short-term correction on the market with investors taking profits following the rally since March,” said Jacques-Pascal Porta, a fund manager at Ofi Patrimoine in Paris, which oversees about $425 million in equities.

Leading Indicators

The dollar headed for its fourth straight weekly loss versus the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero to spur growth.

Dell slid 6.4 percent to $14.85. The company yesterday reported a 54 percent drop in third-quarter net income to $337 million, or 17 cents a share, as sales slid 15 percent to $12.9 billion. Analysts on average predicted profit of 27 cents and sales of $13.1 billion.

Freeport gained 0.5 percent to $85.17 as copper, lead, tin and zinc prices advanced in London.

ADC Telecommunications Inc. sank as much as 13 percent to $5.81 in New York after-hours trading. The maker of equipment for telephone companies forecast first-quarter revenue of $250 million to $275 million, saying spending from clients will drop “considerably.” Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated average revenue of $270.4 million.

Hibbett Sports Inc. jumped as much as 11 percent to $20.99 in after-hours trading as the owner of sporting-goods stores increased its forecast for fiscal 2010, saying it expects to earn at least 95 cents a share. That topped the 92-cent average estimate from analysts.

Housing Market

Verigy Ltd. gained 6 percent to $9.54 in Germany as the maker of semiconductor-testing equipment forecast a first- quarter loss of 9 cents a share at most, narrower than the average estimate of 14 cents by analysts.

The outlook for the home market dimmed this week as residential construction and mortgage applications fell and loan delinquencies rose. Mortgage applications for home purchases dropped to a 12-year low last week and foreclosures climbed to record highs in the third quarter, according to reports from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 20, 2009 05:42 EST

Nisam 100% siguran da je ovo dobro mesto, ali sigurno ima neke veze...

Podrška Obami u SAD pala ispod 50 %
21. novembar 2009. | 13:04 | Izvor: Tanjug
Vašington -- Manje od 50 odsto Amerikanca trenutno smatraju da predsednik Barak Obama dobro obavlja svoj posao, pokazala je najnovija Galupova anketa.

Trenutno samo 49 odsto ispitanika podržava Obamu, pokazali su juče objavljeni rezultati ankete koja je obuhvatila preko 1.500 ljudi. U januaru kada je preuzeo dužnost predsednika, Obamu je podržavalo 70 odsto anketiranih.

Razlog ovog drastičnog pada Obamine popularnosti je, kako se ocenjuje u Galupu, preduga rasprava o zdravstvenoj zaštiti i oslabljena privreda zbog čega je mnogo Amerikanaca ostalo bez posla.

Tako se Barak Obama svrstao među one američke predsednike kojima je podrška najbrže opala ispod 50 odsto računjajući od Drugog svetskog rata. Pre njega su to bili Džerald Ford (republikanac), Bil Klinton (demokrata) i Ronald Regan (republikanac).

Piter Braun, iz Instituta za istraživanje javnog mnjenja univerziteta Kvinipiak čije su ankete pokazale skoro identične rezultate Galupovima, ukazuje da to nije dobar znak za Belu kuću.

Ovi ameri ako znaju sta hoce ubime! Rast ponedeljkom velik pa pad do kraja nedelje! valda se to nece ponoviti i ove ned!
Nekako mi na B.B. deluje da su neke hartije dosle do dna! po prvi put posle nekoliko nedelja da je bid na enhl i aikb bio isti kao ask :D

Ameri imaju i praznik ove nedelje...
Meni se čini u svakom slučaju da će da roknu do kraja nedelje!

Ma... Sad bih najstrasnije opsovao. Prodaja polovnih kuca je porasla za 10,1%, i bullsi su izleteli na povrsinu, eno ih, nasvirali su Dow najstrasnije, uz sve to jos i FED-ov Bullard, koji je rekao - ljudi, izlazite iz dolara i kupujte risky assets. I panicna kupovina na Wall Street-u i u Evropi traje, redovi do Azije.

A sto se Belexa tice... Dabogda tajkuni @#$$%^#%&%$^U*!!!!

ko zna zasto je to dobro!!!! :D mene busi zeludac zadnjih mesec dana mora da sam circinu zaradio! :D zbog nerviranja! Nemogu da se naucim da emocije izbacim iz ovog posla!

eeee a da promenimo naslov teme u pitanje

ZAŠTO KRETANJE NA USA I EU TRŽIŠTU NEMA REFLEKSIJU NA SRBIJU

Američki GDP je 2.8% što odgovara očekivanjima!
Videćemo kako će to uticati na berzu!

Eno Evropa u lepom zelenom a Ameri ih naravno prate... A mi? Jad i beda... :cherry:

Nama trebaju strani investitori, pa ce onda berza da krene. Ovo sto je uslo pre par meseci nije nista.
Tada su akcije skocile,sada se oni samo igraju.

Eno i Hrvati posle 6 dana crvenila danas presli u zeleno i to 0,72%!!! Samo nasa "berzica" posrce li posrce. E nece joj dugo!

Sve sto se danas moze reci je... All hands, brace for impact. Svetska trzista su u najgorem padu od marta, samo da fondovi ne pocnu napustanje Belexa.

S obzirom kakav se pad u provaliju ocekivao u Americi, Dow se za sada dosta dobro drzi -1,15%, a u Evropi kao da se nista nije dogodilo, svi u plusu oko 1%, a veliko iznenadjenje je u Londonu posto je objavljeno da su dve banke previse upletene u zbivanja u Dubaiju, jedna od njih je uletela sa preko 17 milijardi dolara....

„Dubai svet” preti globalno

POLITIKA: Tanja Vujić
[objavljeno: 28/11/2009]

Pomućeno blagostanje: Dubai

Najnovije poglavlje svetske finansijske krize otvoreno je ove sedmice sasvim neočekivano u Dubaiju, novovekovnoj investiciono-turističkoj „Meki” Persijskog zaliva. Zahtev Emirata stranim finansijerima da privremeno odlože naplatu basnoslovnog duga vodećeg holdinga „Dubai svet” izazvao je juče, drugi dan zaredom, paničnu rasprodaju akcija vodećih zapadnjačkih banaka, građevinskih kompanija, proizvođača automobila i mašinske opreme od Hongkonga do Londona i Volstrita. Strahujući da Dubai možda neće biti u stanju da otplati strane dugove nazidane tokom građevinskog buma poslednjih godina, investitori su juče rasprodavali sve iole „rizične” akcije vezane za naftu, zlato, poslove u zemljama u razvoju...

Košmar oko sudbine velikih zaduživanja „Dubai sveta” kod vodećih zapadnih finansijera i produžena neizvesnost oko daljeg oporavka američke privrede izazvali su juče „nenormalno oštri rast vrednosti jena prema dolaru”, ocenio je japanski ministar finansija Hiroša Fudži. On je najavio da bi zbog tekućih potresa na tržištu valuta G-7 uskoro mogao da izda vanredno zajedničko saopštenje.

„Nakon dužničkog debakla Dubaija, na svetskim berzama ponovo vlada paranoja”, upozorio je juče američki magazin „Forbs”. Taman što su vodeće razvijene zemlje – sem Velike Britanije – objavile naznake skromnog izlaska iz recesije, a Kina, Indija i Brazil prijavili znatan privredni rast u 2009. godini, šok je stigao iz Dubaija. Uoči zatvaranja berze u Dubaiju zbog proslave Kurban-bajrama ove sedmice i kratkog predaha na Volstritu zbog Dana zahvalnosti, Emirat je bez reči objašnjenja upozorio međunarodne finansijere da islamsku obveznicu, takozvani „sukuk”, u vrednosti od 3,1 milijardu dolara sa datumom prispeća na naplatu početkom decembra, ne bi ispunio na vreme! Uz tu 3,1 milijardu dolara, Emirat je zatražio reprogramiranje još oko 32 milijarde dolara duga „Dubai sveta”, konglomerata u čijem sastavu je i jedan od vodećih svetskih operatera velikih luka i najveća građevinska firma u Ujedinjenim Arapskim Emiratima. Dojučerašnje mezimče najjačih anglosaksonskih finansijera (tri vodeće britanske banke RBS, HSBS i Standard čartered su vodeći poverioci „Dubai sveta”), Emirat je Zapadu preko noći počeo da liči na finansijski posrnulu Argentinu s kraja 20. veka. Jučerašnje saopštenje vladarskog dvora Dubaija da je „restrukturisanje holdinga Dubai svet pažljivo planirano” nije zaustavilo besomučno obaranje vrednosti akcija poslova u Persijskom zalivu i vrtoglavi skok osiguravajućih premija za finansijske derivate u velikom broju zemalja u razvoju.

Investitori besomučno pokušavaju da procene gde su još neotkrivene „crne rupe” svetskog finansijskog tržišta.

„Grčka i Dubai ukazuju koliko je globalni finansijski sistem danas i dalje ranjiv, uprkos ranim naznakama oporavka”, upozorio je juče londonski „Fajnenšel tajms”, upozoravajući na opasnost da plejada država, banaka i biznisa širom sveta još ni izbliza nije prikazala svoje stvarno finansijsko stanje.

„Iako je najgori talas krize prošao, svetska ekonomija je i dalje u veoma ranjivom stanju”, upozorio je početkom sedmice Dominik Štros-Kan, izvršni direktor Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda.

Apel Dubaija za odloženom otplatom duga od 35 milijardi dolara seje novi talas panike. U Emiratu jetko primećuju da bogati investitori strahujući za svoje potencijalne gubitke u Dubaiju ovih dana zaboravljaju na zastrašujući rast nezaposlenosti na svom terenu.

Greta, Centralna Banka prebogatih UAE ce garantovati za dug Dubaija. Mozemo svi da odahnemo, SP 500 go for 1200!!