USA finansijsko trziste i refleksije na Evropu, Srbiju...

I samo da ja odvalim neko moje "predviđanje" ako bude stvarno neke značajnije korekcije...
Očekivao bih da ide S&P 500 do 970-980 (što je oko 6-7%). :)

Neka me neko ispravi ako gresim ali mi se cini da se ovo prvi put desava od marta da i pored svih dobrih vesti, index ovako jako padne. Korekcija je dobra po trziste iako me ne raduje previse a u svakom slucaju je bitnije da su vesti koje se plasiraju sve bolje i bolje pa ce se vrlo brzo pozitivno odraziti na indexe.

Mrave, sada ide korekcija zasnovana na otreznjenju od ogromnih ocekivanja. Danasnji ISM je srusen dosta surovo, SP zatvorio ispod 1000.

StefanoProdi ::

Mrave, sada ide korekcija zasnovana na otreznjenju od ogromnih ocekivanja. Danasnji ISM je srusen dosta surovo, SP zatvorio ispod 1000.

Koliku korekciju ocekujes, u procentima?

Kako gde, kod nas do 600 B15

StefanoProdi ::

Kako gde, kod nas do 600 B15

Ne verujem da ce kod nas biti tolika korekcija,do -5% maksimalno...

5% je beznacajno, pa pogledajte kakav je bio rast na Wall Street-u i/ili evropskim berzama (FTSE, DAX, CAC) - 5-6% za poslednjih mesec dana, dok je Belex 15 porastao gotovo 30%. Bez obzira na cinjenicu da je ovo plitko trziste podlozno raznim manipulacijama, mora se vratiti na realniju meru. Mislim da je Prodijeva prognoza sasvim realna.

U poslednje vreme, U.S. trziste slabije je uticalo na evropska trzista. Vise mi se cini da je Evropa gledala u Aziju ( Kina i delimicno Japan) jer su glavne ekonomije EU (DE,FRA) uglavnom izvozno orijentisane, a ove zemlje u razvoju iz Azije su glavni potrosaci proizvoda bas te DE i FRA. Mislim da je cela prica oko pada -10% cista laz i pokusaj da se obore sadasnje cene akcija i jeftino udje i zaradi ekstra lova. Kada kompanije objave izvestaje za treci kvartal, svima ce biti jasno da je cela ova prica bila izmisljotina. To ce biti potvrda mog stava.
Beleks je pao kao retko koja berza. Jos puno akcija je i dalje ispod knjigovodstvene cene. Ne vidim nikakav razlog zasto bi uopste pratili neku Ameriku ili Japan, kada kod nas balon nije ni bio preduvan. Kaskali smo sa rastom deonica, a prednjacili sa padom. To mora negde da se nivelise.

Ne ocekujem pad beleksa, bar ne drastican!

Sentiment koji rusi cene akcija je prilicno uniforman sirom globusa - osecaj da su akcije "overbought", kao i da vec odrazavaju pozitivne ekonomske podatke. Ne razumem zasto svi porede Belex na nivou od 3335 poena i Belex na nivou od 720 poena, kad je jasno da , na primer, akcije Agrobanke nikada vise nece vredeti 50000, ili akcije Credy banke ( ) 40000. Malo realnija ocekivanja ne bi bila na odmet.

A sto akcije AGBN nece vise vredeti 50000 ? Na osnovu cega ti to procenjujes astrologija ili racio?

Zanimljivo je da mali investitori (slični nama) u USA smatraju da je korekcija veštačka i navodno je prave veliki igrači koji nisu uskočili na vreme da zgrnu pare. To se pre svega odnosi na 4 velike banke u USA koje su porasle i do 250% i po tome vlada USA je samo na City banci profitirala 12 miljijardi $

NEBOJSAe ::

A sto akcije AGBN nece vise vredeti 50000 ? Na osnovu cega ti to procenjujes astrologija ili racio?

Da, da, bas se sluzim astrologijom. Pa za koje pare je prodata Vojvodjanska banka, koja je i bolja i veca od Agrobanke? Ko ce platiti vise 50000 rsd za akcije Agrobanke?

Dexiv ::

Ko ce platiti vise 50000 rsd za akcije Agrobanke?

Zivi bili pa videli! Ko zna mozda bude vredela i vise. :D

Pogledajte Crobex (istina, on vise korelira sa zapadnim berzama nego Belex) - banke su na oko 1,1-1,2 Book-a. Dakle, AGBN na oko 25000.

Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say
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By Cristina Alesci

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.

Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”

Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that government intervention is pulling the U.S. out of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March through yesterday.

The economy will expand at an annualized rate of 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June 2010, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median estimate of at least 53 forecasters in a Bloomberg survey.

Tudor, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm started by Jones in the early 1980s, told clients in an Aug. 3 letter that the stock market’s climb was a “bear-market rally.” Weak growth in household income was among the reasons to be dubious about the rebound’s chances of survival, Tudor said.

Yields Drop

Yields on corporate bonds relative to U.S. Treasury benchmarks have sunk to levels unseen since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September, a positive sign for credit markets. Spreads on junk bonds fell in July to within 10 percentage points of Treasuries, lifting them out of the distressed category for the first time in almost a year.

“We think the recession is ending right now,” Abby Joseph Cohen, senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview Aug. 17. The New York-based bank forecasts 2 percent growth in U.S. gross domestic product in 2010.

Economists at New York-based Morgan Stanley in the past month have incrementally raised their GDP growth estimate for the current quarter to 4.8 percent annualized from 3.5 percent.

President Barack Obama said a decline in July’s unemployment rate signaled “the worst may be behind us.” GDP shrank 6.4 percent in the first quarter and 1 percent in the second, after a 4 percent contraction in the second half of 2008.

Different Jobless Rate

A focus on misleading indicators is driving markets, macro managers say.

Clarium watches the unemployment rate that accounts for discouraged job applicants and those working part-time because they can’t find full-time positions, Harrington said. July joblessness with those adjustments was 16 percent, according to the Department of Labor, rather than the more widely reported 9.4 percent.

The housing data isn’t as rosy as some see it, Harrington said. As existing U.S. home sales rose 7.2 percent in July from the previous month, distressed deals including foreclosures accounted for 31 percent of transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors, a Chicago-based trade group.

A report by the Mortgage Bankers Association, based in Washington, showed the share of home loans with one or more payments overdue rose to a seasonally adjusted 9.24 percent in the second quarter, an all-time high.

Loaded for Bear

Clarium, which oversees about $2 billion, is positioned for an equity bear market through investments in the U.S. dollar, Harrington said. Falling stock prices will strengthen the currency by forcing leveraged investors to sell equities to pay down the dollar-denominated debt they used to finance those trades, he said.

High unemployment, lower wages and potential missteps by policymakers around the globe may stifle economic growth in 2010, Tudor said. The firm, which manages $10.8 billion, is at odds with 55 economists projecting an average of 2.3 percent growth next year, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Macro managers’ pessimism is fueled in part by the U.S. government’s response to last year’s financial crisis, which they say fails to address the root cause. Banks still hold hard- to-sell assets on their balance sheets, the managers said.

Subdued Credit Growth

“Some critical initiatives have been cut short,” Tudor said. “As a result, toxic assets remain on balance sheets and credit growth is likely to be subdued for a long period.”

Some firms, including Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, see the recession at its end while dismissing the likelihood of robust growth.

Brevan Howard, Europe’s largest hedge-fund manager with $24 billion in assets, told clients the U.S. could stumble when stimulus spending fades after the current quarter. The London- based firm, whose macro fund gained 20 percent last year, said consumer wealth erosion, scant bank lending and troubled world economies may result in a lackluster recovery.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and other policy makers took unprecedented steps in the past year to stave off financial disaster. The Fed’s Board of Governors used emergency powers to rescue markets for commercial paper, housing bonds and asset- backed securities. The Fed’s balance sheet swelled to $2.08 trillion last week, more than doubling from a year earlier.

Accounting Effect

The Financial Accounting Standards Board voted in April to relax fair-value accounting rules. The change to mark-to-market accounting allowed companies to use “significant” judgment in gauging prices of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities that plunged with the housing market.

Banks are reporting better earnings because they haven’t been forced to account for their losses yet, Clarium’s Harrington said.

“We haven’t fixed the problem,” he said. “We’ve just slowed down the official recognition of it.”

Hedge funds rose in July for the fifth consecutive month, returning an average of 2.4 percent as stocks advanced, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. Bearish stances prevented some macro funds from joining the rally. The category lagged behind the industry average in July, rising 0.6 percent.

Fund Performance

Clarium, whose assets were mostly in fixed income, dropped 6 percent this year through June. Horseman’s fund slid 16.3 percent. Tudor’s BVI Global Fund Ltd. returned 11 percent.

The funds held up in 2008 amid the industry’s record 19 percent loss. Horseman’s Global Fund USD, which focuses on stocks, made HSBC’s private bank list of top 20 performers by gaining 31 percent. Tudor’s and Clarium’s funds fell 4.5 percent.

Macro managers are examining China for hints on how to place currency and commodities bets. Tudor said the country’s spending spree on raw materials inflated commodity prices and weakened the U.S. dollar.

A government mandate forcing banks to make about $1 trillion in loans during this year’s first half is spurring short-term growth that may not last, according to Clarium. China’s banking regulator drafted capital requirements Aug. 19 that may lead banks to rein in lending.

Horseman, with $4.1 billion under management out of London, was investing in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. The firm believes interest rates will stay low for longer than the market expects, benefiting the asset class.

“Despite every effort by government in North America and Europe to avoid deflation,” Horseman wrote, “the current numbers suggest they are losing the battle.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Cristina Alesci in New York at calesci2@bloomberg.net

Dow Theory Signals S&P 500 Drop, UBS Says: Technical Analysis
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By Julie Cruz

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should “sell the rallies” as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may drop to 880 by early November, according to technical analysts at UBS AG who look at the so-called Dow Theory to predict market trends.

A decline below 1,012 may lead the benchmark measure for U.S. equities to the next support level at 980, UBS analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Mueller wrote in a report dated yesterday, when the S&P 500 retreated 2.2 percent to 998.04, the biggest loss in two weeks.

Dow Theory, developed by Wall Street Journal co-founder Charles Dow in 1884, holds that moves by the industrial average must be “confirmed” by the transportation average in order to be sustained. Dow Theory is a version of technical analysis, the study of charts patterns to predict prices.

Recent breakouts in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average “have not yet been confirmed by a new high in the transport sector,” the analysts wrote. “We don’t think the recent breakouts will be sustainable.”

The S&P 500 has rebounded 48 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 and reached a high for the year on Aug. 27, as did the Dow average. Stocks have fallen this week amid concern the global rally in equities has outpaced the prospects for an economic recovery.

“The next bigger move will in our view be on the downside,” according to Riesner and Mueller. “Cyclical sectors are generally starting to underperform.”

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which reached a high for the year at 3,774.12 on Aug. 13, lost 1.2 percent last week, while the Dow average rose 0.4 percent. The two indexes had reached highs for 2009 simultaneously on Aug. 7, which was considered a bullish signal by followers of the Dow Theory.

-- With assistance from Francesca Cinelli in Milan. Editors: Christiane Lenzner, Andrew Rummer

To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Cruz in Frankfurt at jcruz6@bloomberg.net.

Ali...



I Hrvati su u plusu... :)

The S&P 500 added 1.3 percent to 1,016.4 at 4:11 p.m. in New York, its best advance on the session before Labor Day since 1999. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 96.66 points, or 1 percent, to 9,441.27. About 7.3 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 22 percent less than the three-month daily average as trading slowed before the holiday weekend.

“There’s been a tremendous string of data points that have consistently beat expectations,” said Liam Dalton, who oversees about $1.1 billion as the New York-based chief executive officer of Axiom Capital Management. “It’s holding up the market.”

Kako komentarisete ovaj skok nafte danas? dve stvari me bune u ovom zelenilu! zasto zlatu skace cena? i zasto padaju obveznice? zlato bi trebalo da pada kao znak da se povlaci novac iz njega i prelazi u akcije,naftu,obveznice.... a ono obrnuto .... moze kometar?

Po nekoj mojoj oceni, zlatu raste cena jer postoji realna opasnost od inflacije u najvecim ekonomijama, pa se investitori okrecu ka ulaganju u zlato. Ne verujem da je neka nova kriza na vidiku.

A obveznice padaju zato što su one finansijski instrument u vremenu teške krize, a pošto kriza prolazi, one donose nezadovoljavanuću zaradu - veću zaradu donose akcije!

Delim misljenje o strahu od inflacije. Ovde je vise prelivanje iz $ u akcije, obveznice, robe...
$ gubi vrednost i povukao je sve cene gore, ali nivo 1,45 je prilican otpor, videcemo da li ce se zatvoriti iznad ovog nivoa do kraja nedelje.
Dodatno je nafta skocila usled spekulacija oko OPEC sastanka u Becu na kome se ne ocekuju bitne promene politike isporuka, ali iznenadjenja su uvek moguca...

Evo malo dobrih vesti:

S&P 500 Moving Averages Show ‘Fierce’ Rally: Technical Analysis
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By Michael Patterson

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A rise in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s five-month moving average above its 15-month moving average for the first time since 2003 signals stocks are in the early stages of a bull market, said Alexander Associates LLP.

The S&P 500’s five-month moving average climbed to 974.39 yesterday, higher than the 15-month moving average of 972.56, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The five-month moving average rose above the 15-month line three other times in the past two decades: March 1991, October 1994 and July 2003. Each cross foreshadowed returns of at least 16 percent during the following 18 months.

“Every time you see these two cross, it signifies a major event,” said Anthony Hughes, a London-based investment manager at Alexander Associates. “It confirms the shift in market sentiment.”

The S&P 500 has returned 53 percent since March 9, when it closed at a 12-year low, as second-quarter earnings topped analysts’ estimates and a rebound in manufacturing and home sales signaled the economy is recovering from its worst recession since the 1930s. The rally compares with a 121 percent return during the last major bull market, from Oct. 9, 2002, to Oct. 9, 2007.

The S&P 500’s monthly moving average convergence/divergence line is another bullish sign for the market, according to Hughes. The so-called MACD rose above its signal line in July, indicating that the index is poised to climb, Hughes said. Technical analysts study chart patterns to predict prices.

“It starts to build a very strong case for a fierce bull rally,” Hughes said. Money managers “see the stars aligning.”

Stefane mogao bi da das kratak komentar, o daljim kretanjima na berzi pogotovo

Belexa.Gde su sledeci otpori, i sta kazu tvoje analize?

P.S Vidim da si u raspravi sa Carom.Daj da cujemo ovde.

P.P.S Volo bi da cujem i kometar uvazenog clana Stefano Prodija. Hvala. :?:

Što se tiče rasprave sa Carom, ona je više logičko-ispumpavačke prirode, kao što si mogao da pročitaš - poenta je da se razdvoji šta je stvarno CITIRANO mišljenje eksperata, a šta je moje, tvoje ili njegovo mišljenje.

Što se tiče otpora i daljeg kretanja Belex15, probaću da obradim one hartije koje čine index, pa da probamo da zaključimo šta nas čeka od ponedeljka! :)

Indeksi ponovo okrenuli smer.

http://www.seebiz.eu/hr/makroekonomija/ek-eurozona-izlazi-iz-recesije!,56048.html

OPTIMIZAM
EK: Eurozona izlazi iz recesije!
Autor/izvor: SEEbiz / Hina
BRUXELLES - Eurozona izlazi iz recesije, ocijenila je u ponedjeljak Europska komisija ali i upozorila na i dalje prisutnu veliku neizvjesnost, zbog čega je zadržala ranije prognoze pada BDP-a eurozone i EU u cjelini za četiri posto u 2009. unatoč poboljšanim izgledima za drugu polovinu godine.

I Ameri trenutno na nuli a bili su u prilicnom minusu, dolar nastavlja pad.

North/Latin America
INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 9,779.01 95.60 0.99% 15:36
S&P 500 INDEX 1,066.86 14.23 1.35% 15:36
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2,129.34 26.70 1.27% 15:37
S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 11,558.90 63.07 0.55% 15:35
MEXICO BOLSA INDEX 29,625.02 241.83 0.82% 09/15
BRAZIL BOVESPA STOCK IDX 60,478.52 1,214.66 2.05% 15:36
More North/Latin America Indexes


Europe/Africa/Middle East
INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME DJ EURO STOXX 50 € Pr 2,882.28 39.28 1.38% 13:00
FTSE 100 INDEX 5,124.13 82.00 1.63% 11:35
CAC 40 INDEX 3,813.79 61.58 1.64% 12:13
DAX INDEX 5,700.26 71.28 1.27% 14:29
IBEX 35 INDEX 11,746.90 153.60 1.32% 11:35
FTSE MIB Index 23,465.49 357.36 1.55% 11:41
AEX-Index 312.76 4.39 1.42% 12:08
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 INDEX 918.44 5.37 0.59% 11:43
SWISS MARKET INDEX 6,299.91 86.72 1.40% 11:31
More Europe/Africa/Middle East Indexes


Asia/Pacific
INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME NIKKEI 225 10,270.77 53.15 0.52% 03:00
HANG SENG INDEX 21,402.92 536.55 2.57% 04:01
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4,650.40 110.10 2.42% 09/16
More Asia/Pacific Indexes

Ovi vrse pritisak.

Mislim da je OK učinak za Triple Witching Friday!

Sto rece Zdravko Colic-nista ja tu ne bi diro ! :D
Preuzeto sa komsijskog foruma(HR):
,,U kasnim večernjim satima sjede u kafani na Baščaršiji Mujo, Haso i Suljo. Piju pivu i pričaju o dionicama. Zazvoni mobitel. Zove Izet iz New Yorka. Uključe mikrofon na mobitelu da ga čuju sva trojica.
- Vozdra raja, šta ima, kako mi stoji Energopetrol?
- Vrti se oko 15-16 maraka, bit će to dobro - kaže Mujo.
- Evo imam friške vijesti iz Amerike. Cijena zlata je pala ispod hiljadu dolara, a nafta stagnira na 70 dolara.
- Je li to dobro ili loše, šta misliš - upita Suljo.
- A šta ja znam, razmislite sami. Moram prekinut, skupi su mi impulsi od ovog AM Eroneta.
- Aj vozdra Izete, javi se kad budeš dolazio.
Linija se prekinula. Njih trojica za stolom razmišljaju.
- Ovo je pravo. Zlato ispod hiljadu dolara. Sve će akcije na Sarajevskoj burzi porasti. Treba kupovati - kaže Mujo.
- Ti kupuj, ja ću prodavat - kaže Haso. Ode berza u crveno, sto posto.
- To nema nikakvog uticaja na Sarajevsku berzu. Džaba je Izet trošio impulse - smatra Suljo.
Svi raspolažu s istom informacijom, dobili su je u isto vrijeme, a samo jedan od njih trojice je u pravu. Odlučite sami, zašto bi vam neko nametao svoje mišljenje.''

Nekako vec ustaljeno je postalo! pocetak nedelje minusi i onda do kraja ned dobar plus! vec dasnas nafta skace opet plus fjucersi isto ,a bogami ako da bog i S an p500 Sutra ujutru imamo minus do 11h i onda blagi plus a prekosutra veliki plus! :D

North/Latin America
INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 9,830.48 51.62 0.53% 15:36
S&P 500 INDEX 1,071.94 7.28 0.68% 15:36
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2,148.20 10.16 0.48% 15:36
S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 11,580.79 156.18 1.37% 15:36
MEXICO BOLSA INDEX 29,489.25 -117.91 -0.40% 15:15
BRAZIL BOVESPA STOCK IDX 61,687.62 759.60 1.25% 15:36
More North/Latin America Indexes


Europe/Africa/Middle East
INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME DJ EURO STOXX 50 € Pr 2,881.60 9.09 0.32% 13:00
FTSE 100 INDEX 5,142.60 8.24 0.16% 11:35
CAC 40 INDEX 3,823.52 11.36 0.30% 12:11
DAX INDEX 5,709.38 40.73 0.72% 14:29
IBEX 35 INDEX 11,816.70 89.30 0.76% 11:35
FTSE MIB Index 23,066.90 19.03 0.08% 11:41
AEX-Index 312.72 1.38 0.44% 12:06
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 INDEX 922.24 9.18 1.01% 11:44
SWISS MARKET INDEX 6,340.72 34.49 0.55% 11:31
More Europe/Africa/Middle East Indexes


Asia/Pacific
INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME NIKKEI 225 10,370.54 -73.26 -0.70% 09/18
HANG SENG INDEX 21,701.14 228.29 1.06% 04:01
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4,663.70 -13.70 -0.29% 09/22
More Asia/Pacific Indexes


Uopste ne izgleda lose :D

Kad god su Ameri bili u plusu preko 0.5%, Belex ih je sutradan pratio sa minimum 2% plusa.

Kad bi neko mogao da izračuna BETU za Belex15 i S&P... Pa da vidimo šta da očekujemo...

Nisam siguran da je beta koef. pravi odgovor na ovo pitanje.
Ako sam dobro shvatio znacenje parametara, mislim da bi korelacija trebala da da odgovor na ovo pitanje.

Pa, u onoj raspravi o BETI i korelaciji, došli smo do sledećih zaključaka:

Korelacija - ako S&P ide gore, i Belex15 ide gore... ako S&P ide dole, i Belex15 ide dole.

BETA - ako S&P ide gore 0.5%, Belex15 ide gore 2%... ako S&P ide dole 0.5%, Belex15 ide dole 2%