USA finansijsko trziste i refleksije na Evropu, Srbiju...

Cim su malo popustili i korigovali, odmah gaze dalje.
Gazprom i vesti vezane za njih, Ameri u zelenom od kojih ce i Evropa ujutru prepisati i zeleni Belex ponovo sutra!


Jun 18 3:24pm † Change %Change Level
Dow +72.41 +0.85% 8,569.59
NASDAQ +4.08 +0.23% 1,812.14
S&P +9.52 +1.05% 920.23

Cini se kraj korekcije, sta mislite hoce li sutra biti guzve na bidu?

European Market Indices
Index Quote Change Change% Local
Russia 959.18 26.44 2.83% 06/24
London 4282.30 52.28 1.24% 15:27
Paris 3193.72 76.90 2.47% 16:22
Frankfurt 4829.83 122.68 2.61% 16:22
Turkey 35758.67 849.61 2.43% 17:07
Hungary 15279.84 433.35 2.92% 16:22
Austria 2037.51 96.02 4.95% 16:21
Poland 30286.36 389.79 1.30% 16:21
Czech 904.60 18.70 2.11% 16:02
Sweden 777.34 23.40 3.10% 16:36
Finland 5579.90 149.44 2.75% 17:36
Norway 251.65 7.76 3.18% 16:22
Greece 2199.11 31.86 1.47% 17:19
Italy 19696.08 543.23 2.84% 16:22
Luxembourg 1106.78 15.79 1.45% 16:35
Netherlands 254.85 6.16 2.48% 16:22


Jun 24 10:50am † Change %Change Level
Dow +96.28 +1.16% 8,419.19
NASDAQ +40.08 +2.27% 1,805.00
S&P +14.94 +1.67% 910.04

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :drrr: :drrr: :drrr: :D :D :D

Nešto su posustali amerikanci

S&P500 preko 0,5% u plusu, dok je Dow u minusu :titanic:

Dušan ::

Nešto su posustali amerikanci

S&P500 preko 0,5% u plusu, dok je Dow u minusu :titanic:

Tek sad videh. E, ne vredi, pokvarise mi sve prognoze :wall:

E, pa nije valjda da ste svi u kesu pa niko da prokomentarise ovako lep dan?

Dow +172.54 +2.08% 8,472.40
NASDAQ +37.20 +2.08% 1,829.54
S&P +19.32 +2.14% 920.26

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

Evo ja se radujem! :)
Pogotovo što nisam u kešu, nego full u akcijama, i pola želuca više nemam zbog prethodne dve nedelje!
Šalim se, naravno. Ko ne može da podnese rizik, nek stavi pare na deviznu štednju (što je stvarno ekstra varijanta).
Danas tek očekujem da se radujem!

StefanMR ::

Ko ne može da podnese rizik, nek stavi pare na deviznu štednju (što je stvarno ekstra varijanta).

Pusti to, takvi ne dolaze ovde!

Table za sada ne izgledaju previše optimistično, ali rano je još, videćemo! :D

Meni se čini da su se sitni uzvrpoljili na raznim akcijama (tu bih bio i ja, da nisam već sve kupio), i da onda kreću krupni da dižu cenu, jerbo nije ista cena za sitnog i za krupnog.
I sad će da prodaju po malo oni, što kaže Orisni, koji moraju biti ispod indexa, da bi neko drugi bio iznad indexa! :)
Opet, ja samo filozofiram!

S&P 500 Near Golden Cross May Signal Gains: Technical Analysis

By Julie Cruz

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is approaching a so-called golden cross that’s considered a buy signal by analysts who make predictions based on patterns in price charts.

A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average, which is currently at 878.04 for the S&P 500, rises above the 200-day moving average, which is at 918.33, Bloomberg data show. The formation implies further gains for the stock market, according to this type of technical analysis.

“If the S&P can hold above its 200-day moving average, the potential for a golden cross increases,” Mary Ann Bartels and Stephen Suttmeier, technical analysts at Bank of America Corp., wrote in a report to clients yesterday.

The U.S. benchmark index’s 50-day moving average has been below the 200-day moving average since December 2007. The 40-day moving average already went above the 150-day moving average in May this year, forming a so-called silver cross, according to Bank of America.

The S&P 500 has surged 39 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 amid speculation government measures and interest-rate cuts will help end the global recession. The gauge, which has posted three straight weekly gains, closed at the highest level for the year at 944.74 on June 2. The next resistance levels are at 915 to 965 and at 1,000 to 1,065, Bartels and Suttmeier said.

Investitori u USA, sa novim kvartalnim rezultatima očekuju povećanje prihoda kompanija kao jasan znak oporavka, a ne kao do sada, "manje loše rezultate od onih koje smo očekivali". Naime, do sada su kompanije ostvarivale bolje rezultate od nekih očekivanja analitičara pre svega redukcijom troškova, i smanjenjem radne snage, dok su se generalno, prihodi i profit smanjivali.

Sledeće nedelje će rezultate objavljivati IBM, General Electric i Bank of America.

Šta kažu eksperti?

IBM (četvrtak, 16. jul): U proseku, analitičari Tomson Rojtersa očekuju zaradu 2,02$ po akciji i prihod od 23,58 milijardi dolara. U istom kvartalu prošle godine, kompanija je ostvarila profit od 1,98$ po akciji i prihod od 26,8 milijardi dolara.

Znaćemo da se ekonomija oporavlja ako prodaja IBM-a pokaže napredak koji se ne može pripisati slabom dolaru. Drugi ohrabrujući znak bi bilo povećanje predviđenog profita od 9,20$ po akciji u ovoj godini.

Bank of America (petak, 17. jul): Analitičari očekuju zaradu od 24 centa po akciji i prihod od 32,35 milijardi dolara. U istom kvartalu prošle godine, kompanija je ostvarila profit od 72 centa po akciji uz prihod od 20,32 milijarde dolara, pre akvizicije Merila.

Ekonomija se oporavlja ukoliko se smanjuje broj dužnika koji nisu u mogućnosti da vrate kredite, posebno sa kreditnim karticama i hipotekama.

General Electric (petak, 17. jul): Analitičari očekuju zaradu od 23 centa po akciji i prihod 42,3 milijarde dolara. U istom kvartalu prošle godine, kompanija je ostvarila profit od 54 centa po akciji i prihod od 45,31 milijardu dolara.

Ukoliko se prodaja avionskih motora održala, to je znak oporavka ekonomije. Veliki proizvođači aviona imaju smanjenje porudžbina, ali GE se dosta dobro drži sa popravkama već prodatih motora. Ukoliko se stabilizuje prodaja motora, to će pokazati da pad u globalnoj avijaciji nije toliko loš kao što se strahovalo.

Prikaz kretanja PE racija na SP 500 od 1870 do danas. Racio je TTM (trailing twelve months), i zanemaruje forward PE koji se kao kažu na www.dshort.com bazira na "wishfull thinking-u" :D

Kao što vidimo, trenutni PE se nalazi u 3. grupi po skupoći (1. grupa je sa najvećim PE, a 5. sa najmanjim, u donjem levom uglu), te možemo zaključii da su cene akcija na nekom graničnom istorijskom nivou. Ja bih sa druge strane, naglasio da su ovi pokazatelji trenutno dosta loši, tj. "recesioni", te da će se (veroatno) još malo pogoršati u narednom kvartalu (ili kvartalima), a da za godinu-dve na ovom niovu cena možemo videti dosta bolje pokazetelje, ili sjajne ako se cene još spuste do tada, u šta sumnjam.

Verujem da svi pratite zbivanja na zapadnim i pre svega USA tržištima, pa se nadam da vam je ovo korisno.

PEKING – Kina je najavila da će od SAD-a zatražiti da zaštiti vrijednost kineskih investicija u SAD-u, na prvom američko-kineskom strateškom i ekonomskom dijalogu od kada je Barack Obama na čelu Bijele kuće. Razgovori se održavaju 27. i 28. srpnja u Washingtonu.
Pomoćnik kineskog ministra finansija, Zu Guangyao, rekao je na konferenciji za novinare da će kineska delegacija tražiti da američka strana „primijeni odgovornu politiku kojom bi osigurala osnovnu stabilnost američkog dolara na tržištu valuta i zaštitila kineske investicije u SAD-u”.

Peking već duže vremena izražava zabrinutost da stimulativni plan SAD-a može smanjiti vrijednost dolara i kineske imovine u SAD-u. Kina je najveći pojedinačni kreditor SAD-a sa 801,5 miljardi dolara. Zu nije želio komentirati jučerašnju izjavu u Kogresu Bena Bernankea da se može izbjeći inflacija, samo je rekao da će to pažljivo proučiti.

Američko izaslanstvo na strateškom i ekonomskom dijalogu predvodiće američki državni sekretar Hilari Klinton i ministar financija Timothy Geithner, a kinesku zamjenik premijera Wang Kisan i državni savjetnik Dai Binguo.

Dve strane će pregovarati o merama koje bi trebalo preduzeti protiv globalne finansijske krize i obnovi ekonomskog rasta, rekao je Zu, i dodao da se Kina nada da će biti postignut dogovor o promociji trgovine i sprečavanju protekcionizma.


:titanic:

Russia 975.96 12.90 1.34% 07/23
London 4527.55 33.82 0.75% 15:12
Paris 3339.50 34.43 1.04% 16:12
Frankfurt 5183.52 61.96 1.21% 16:12

Dax na ovogodisnjem maksimumu!!!

Dow +115.70 +1.30% 8,996.96
NASDAQ +26.61 +1.38% 1,952.99
S&P +13.46 +1.41% 967.53
Djihan na 9000!!! Belex ubi nelikvidnost pa smo tu gde jesmo.

Mislim da će ova situacija sa nelikvidnošću da potraje. Zbog ovakve situacije strani investitori su fokusirani na sopstveno tržište u očekivanju oporavka. Ipak su im tamo glavna ulaganja i to im je prioritet tako da su ulaganja na marginalne (čitaj exYU + bivši Ruski pakt) mnogo manja. Tek kada se njihova situacija stabilizuje, što će dovesti do sporijeg rasta njihovih berzi, tada će u potrazi za boljom i bržom zaradom početi značajnija ulaganja u male berze kao što je naša. Mislim da će se ovo dogoditi najranije krajem prvog kvartala naredne godine, pod uslovom da se trenutni trend nastavi do tada.

VAŠINGTON | 29.07.2009.

Obama vidi početak kraja recesije



(Tanjug-Ekos)

Američki predsednik Barak Obama izjavio je danas da je zabrinut zbog obima američkog deficita koji će, kako je prognozirano, ove godine porasti na 1,8 biliona (hiljada milijardi) dolara, ali je ukazao da bi obuzdavanje troškova sada predstavljalo grešku.
Moraćemo da stegnemo kaiše, ali to ne možemo da učinimo sada jer se ekonomija izvlači iz recesije", rekao je Obama u Severnoj Karolini, gde je doputovao kako bi promovisao svoj plan reforme zdravstvenog sistema.
Obama je ocenio da je u SAD "možda u toku početak kraja 19-mesečne recesije" i da je njegova politika doprinela da zemlja ne potone u depresiju, preneo je Rojters.
Suočen sa stalnim kritikama republikanaca da njegov 787 milijardi dolara vredan stimulativni plan nije uspeo da spreči da stopa gubitaka radnih mesta poraste na 9,5 odsto, on je izneo argumente u odbranu svoje ekonomske politike, od programa za spasavanje banaka i proizvođača automobila do stimulativnih izdataka.
"Tržište se oporavlja i finansijski sistem nije više na ivici kolapsa. Gubimo radna mesta po stopi koja je gotovo za polovinu manja od one koja je bila pre šest meseci, kada sam stupio na ovu funkciju", rekao je Obama.
Braneći vladin plan za spasavanje proizvođača automobila "Krajsler" i "Dženeral motors", on je ukazao da bi njihov kolaps doveo do propasti ekonomije.
"Spasli smo stotine hiljada radnih mesta zahvaljujući tome i očekujemo da nam naš novac bude vraćen", istakao je Obama.

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. stocks have entered a new bull market, and the S&P 500 index could rise as much as 10% from current levels by the end of this year, Abby Joseph Cohen, the head of Goldman Sachs' investment policy committee, said on CNBC Thursday.

Goldman Sachs sees the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index in a range of 1,050-1,100 points toward year-end, said Cohen, the firm's senior investment strategist and president of its global markets institute. That range, she said, "is where we should be toward the end of this year."

Stocks have recovered sharply since hitting 12-year lows in early March, with the S&P 500 index now up 47% since trading as low as 666.79 points in March. In early afternoon trade on Thursday, the S&P was off 0.63% at 996.44 points.

0:00 /4:39Goldman's compensation gamble
"We do think the new bull market has begun," Cohen said. "It may prove it began in March of this year."

Cohen also said she expects the labor market to improve, but in "an erratic way."

"It appears job losses are slowing, and there is some job creation going on," she said. But "we have many more months of difficult labor situation ahead, even if the recession, using GDP or industrial production, is almost over."

Employment data has been keenly watched for signs of improvement. On Friday, investors will get another look at the job situation with the Labor Department's July employment report.

Upoređivanje kretanja Dow Jones indeksa tokom velike depresije 1930-ih godina i dosadašnje kretanje S&P 500. Sličnost je iznenađujuća. Naravno, ovo ništa ne mora da znači, jer su okolnosti sasvim drugačije sada nego što su bile tada. Državne intervencije, informatičko doba, mnogo veći broj učesnika i lakši pristup informacijama itd. Naravno, akcenat na državni intervencionizam.

Plavom bojom je označen S&P 500 zaključno sa 6. avgustom, dok siva krivulja predstavlja Dow Jones i njegov krah 1929 godine.

Pitanje svih pitanja i tri odgovora stručnjaka.

Have we hit the bottom?

Experts vary in their opinions about whether the much smaller economic decline in the second quarter means the end of the recession.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A government report Friday showed that the economy is no longer falling off a cliff, but that doesn't necessarily mean we can slam the door on the recession.

The economy continued to contract, albeit at a much slower pace, in the second quarter. But since GDP is a trailing indicator, some say more evidence is needed before a bottom can really be called.

Ask three economists, get three different answers. And that's exactly what CNNMoney.com did. Read on and decide for yourself.

Rock bottom. "I'm pretty sure this was the bottom," said Sung Won Sohn, professor of economics at California State University. "Everything suggests that the worst is behind us, and in the second half of the year, we should see a positive GDP number."

Backing up that assertion, Sohn noted that the pace of contraction in every domestic category slowed to a near crawl last quarter. (The one exception was government spending, which rocketed higher.)

Businesses aren't cutting back by as much, housing appears to be bottoming, and the slowdown in manufacturing has slowed down.

Perhaps most importantly, consumer spending hasn't fallen off by as much as people feared and that may be the key, according to Sohn.

"Housing sales and prices will begin to rise, which will lead to a lot of consumer spending," he predicted. "And, remember, stimulus will be kicking in this quarter."

On the brink. Kurt Karl, head of economic research at Swiss Re, is on the fence.

"This [third quarter] is the transition quarter," said Karl. "We're right on the cusp -- it could go positive or negative, but we probably won't see a trough until September."

Karl said there won't be any more huge quarterly declines like we saw in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, as some confidence has been restored. But the jobs, housing and credit situations still need to improve before the economy can really recover -- an unlikely scenario, he says.

"Neither the third or fourth quarters of this year should be strong given what we're still facing," said Karl. "We seem to be approaching the corner, but it's not a sharp corner."

One thing that could cause the third quarter to go positive is stronger auto sales, Karl argued. With the success of the Cash for Clunkers program, he expects automakers to ramp up production and sales, which could add significantly to GDP. The House voted Friday to extend the program by $2 billion, but a vote still looms in the Senate, where it could face opposition.

But that could be an artificial boost. And if the job situation doesn't improve by the end of the year, Karl wouldn't rule out a negative GDP reading for the fourth quarter.

Hold your horses. "This report points to a lot of things that suggest we're nearing bottom," said Bob Brusca, economist at FAO Economics. "But every component other than government spending contracted last quarter, so it's crystal clear that there's no recovery yet."

Brusca said it's too early to say whether we've hit bottom since GDP is a trailing indicator -- looking at the last quarter rather than the current economic situation. And since all of the data is still pointing downward, he said it's unfair to say the recession has ended.

He did say the fact that the pace slowed down is certainly encouraging. Brusca was especially heartened by the smaller decline in business inventories, which suggest the bottom is approaching. Still, he noted that businesses are on a pace to take a whopping $140 billion out of inventories this year, adding, "We're a far cry from businesses adding to their inventories."

"I like that [hitting bottom] story a lot," said Brusca. "But we've been sticking our necks out, saying, 'That's the last one' every quarter, and we've been wrong each time."

European Factors-Shares set to dip after strong rally
Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:11am EDT

PARIS, Aug 10 (Reuters) - European equities are expected to
retreat on Monday, as investors look to book some gains following a four-week
rally that has propelled stocks to their highest level in nine months.

Financial spreadbetters expected Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE to open 9 to 19
points lower, or as much as 0.4 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI to open 7 to 16
points lower, or as much as 0.3 percent, and France's CAC-40 .FCHI to open 5
to 13 points lower, or as much as 0.4 percent.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares rose 1.3 percent
on Friday to end at 950.38 points, its highest close since Nov. 5, after
better-than-expected U.S. jobs data boosted sentiment.

Europe's benmark index has risen nearly 17 percent since July 10, and is now
up 14 percent in 2009.

Sto bi moglo da znaci da cemo ove nedelje malo da kupujemo :D

Mislim da se svi tome nadamo! :)

Kako ono bese,AIKB na 1700... :D

To je za ajkule! Ja sam srećan da uhvatim na 2000-2100!

Slazem se,sve sto se upeca ispod 2000 je premija.

Prema ocekivanjima,Evropa se otvorila crveno 8)

E kad bi mi neko rekao gde to gledate... ;(

StefanMR ::

E kad bi mi neko rekao gde to gledate... ;(

Ovde :D

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei.html

mislim da je naše tržište mnogo inertnije tako da ovo neće bitnije uticati na cene akcija kod nas. problem je što su strani investitori povukli većinu svog kapitala tamo gde im je to lakše za kontrolu i gde je tržište bar kratkoročno predvidljivije tako da mogu brže reagovati i ostvariti dobit. ovde smo ostali mi sitnije ribice koje se hrane planktonima tako da je svaka dobit prava umetnost.

Stocks in a pullback
Wall Street retreats as investors get ready for the latest from the central bank and the results of three Treasury auctions.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Tuesday as a worse-than-expected reading on wholesale inventories added to jitters about the ongoing Federal Reserve meeting and three-day Treasury auction.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 108 points, or 1.1%, around 2 hours into the session. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 13 points, or 1.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) dipped 30 points, or 1.5%.

Stocks slipped modestly in the first 30 minutes of the session, but lost more steam after the government said wholesale inventories fell 1.7% in June versus forecasts for a drop of 0.9%.

Stocks rallied through the end of last week, with the S&P 500 jumping 50% since bottoming in March. But investors have dragged their feet this week as they look for new signs that the economy is stabilizing. This week, the two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting and the Treasury auctions will take center stage.

"We don't expect any changes from the Fed," said Tim McCandless, senior equity analyst at Bel Air Investment Advisors. "Eventually they will outline an exit strategy, but not yet."

McCandless said that while stocks are lower so far this week, a rally can probably stretch out through the rest of August, before facing bigger challenges in the fall.

Fiscal stimulus and "less bad" economic news and profit reports fueled the stock market rally so far. But longer term, "we need to see a shift from stabilization in the economy and cost cutting driving earnings, to real growth," he said.

Stock declines were broad based, with 28 of 30 Dow issues falling.

Dow financial components American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500) all declined. The KBW Bank (BKX) index lost 4.8%.

IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) were the Dow's other big decliners.

Federal Reserve meeting: The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with a decision on interest rates and a statement on the economy due out Wednesday afternoon.

The central bank is expected to hold rates steady at historic lows near zero. In its closely scrutinized statement, the bankers are expected to say that economic activity is picking up, but that they remain cautious about the outlook. The bank is not expected to say anything too specific about what its exit strategy may be after putting so much stimulus into the financial system.

Economy: U.S. productivity in the second quarter jumped at the fastest pace in six years, the government said Tuesday. Productivity - which measures how much workers produce per hour worked - rose 6.4% versus forecasts for a rise of 5.5%. Productivity rose 0.3% in the first quarter.

Oil and gold: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell $1.73 to $68.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $1 to $945.90 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.69% from 3.77% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The U.S. government is auctioning $75 billion in debt this week as part of its efforts to fuel the economic recovery and manage the budget deficit. The first auction is Tuesday, with $37 billion in 3-year notes due for offer.

Other markets: In global trading, European markets slumped in afternoon trading and Asian markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

iki ::

Kako ono bese,AIKB na 1700... :D

Mnogo je kume :D
Ja mislim da kraj nedelje ce se poceti zeleniti index u svetu! i da je ova nedelja super za kupovinu! mislim da do kraja nedelje S and P 500 mora da predje 1000 poena. ako padne ispod 950 nece valjati! onda jesen moze da bude jako losa! iskreno meni sav ovaj rast izgleda kao na stakleni nogama! Bojim se da ce okidac biti svinski grip! Jos mislim da overa dna mora biti jos jedna!

Sutr bivec mogao plus od +2 naj kasnije petak. svaka cat Stefane! :twisted:

Evo završio se S&P za danas

INTERESANTNA ANALIZA

Stocks: The latest Fed bubble
Are the government programs supporting the financial sector reinflating global stock markets even as economies stumble?

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The Federal Reserve has spent the past year cleaning up after a housing bubble it helped create. But along the way it may have pumped up another bubble, this time in stocks.

To head off the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the central bank has slashed interest rates while funneling money to banks.

The Fed has mostly won praise for its efforts. The pace of job losses has slowed, and there has been a modest recovery in output.

At the same time, stocks have bounced back with startling speed. Since global markets hit their bottom in March, the S&P 500 has jumped 51% -- even as the outlook for economic recovery remains dim.

"This is the most speculative momentum-driven equity market since the early 1930s," Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg wrote in a note to clients Monday.

Of course, stocks have rallied in part because investors perceive the worst-case scenario -- a 1930s-style Depression -- is off the table. And while the gains have been remarkable, they come after an even bigger decline. The S&P is still down 16% since Lehman Brothers collapsed in September.

But while most people take the rise in stocks as a hopeful sign for the economy, some see evidence that the Fed has been financing a speculative mania that could end in another damaging rout.

Recent weeks have brought huge rallies in some of the lowest-quality stocks -- including firms such as AIG (AIG, Fortune 500), Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) that are being propped up by the government and are unlikely to return to health any time soon.

What's more, this year has brought an 80% surge in emerging market stocks, while the dollar has posted a 10% decline since March. A declining dollar and surging emerging markets were the hallmarks of the credit-fueled bull run earlier this decade.

"We have put the band back together on a lot of this," said Howard Simons, a strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago. "That couldn't have happened without liquidity."

Though liquidity is admittedly a nebulous concept, there's no question that central bankers around the globe have poured huge amounts of money into the markets to ease the financial crisis. Given free money, investors' appetite for risk shoots higher and they gobble up stocks.

That's good, except when the outlook for economic growth doesn't seem to support the higher stock values.

"Many observers are wondering whether the strong stock market rebound since mid-March is already a forerunner of the next recovery or simply driven by a reflux of liquidity into riskier asset markets," Deutsche Bank Research analyst Sebastian Becker wrote in a report last month.

Rosenberg, who notes that consumer credit has dropped an unprecedented five straight months, said it's far from clear the recession is over. He says the risk of a market relapse later this year is high.

Simons said another factor that could work against recovery is that short-term interest rates could soon head higher, judging by action in futures markets. That could raise companies' borrowing costs at a time when policymakers have committed to holding rates near zero to restore economic growth.

Fed officials have stressed that they will start to unwind their financial support programs at the earliest sign of inflation. Given the cost of cleaning up after the last bubble, Becker writes that "this time, policymakers are unlikely to remain inactive should they suspect the formation of another asset price bubble."

But it's clear that bankers are loath to pull back on their support for the financial system before it's clear the economy has staged a stronger recovery. And the Fed has a long and painful history of ignoring asset price inflation.

"The central bankers have this textbook belief that the only inflation is the kind that appears in consumer price indexes," said Simons. "They don't believe what they're doing could cause an asset price bubble."

For now, Fed chief Ben Bernanke and other central bankers can console themselves for now with stable consumer price inflation readings in major economies.

But comparing the bankers with a driver pulled over for speeding for the umpteenth time, Simons said, "At some point, you have to say maybe your speedometer's broken."